• Week 11: Weather Forecast

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      Week 11 Information

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      In this week, we cover weather forecasting from chapter 13 of your textbook. In this chapter, we look at how weather observations are collected and analyzed, and at the wide variety of weather forecasts that are made using this data.

       Learning Objectives:

      1. Discuss the tools that weather forecasters use to decipher the wide array of weather data presented to them and to make a prediction.
      2. Distinguish between different types of weather forecasts on the basis of time, and explain the data types and tools used for each type.
      3. State the various factors that can lead to weather forecasting problems.
      4. Develop weather forecasts for a range of locations using only surface charts.

      Let us start with this short video on a really cool technology a weather forecast presenter in your TV screen use to point places and various weather forecast pattern.

      Activities and Assignments:

      1. Discussion (25 grade points)

      Initial Post for all questions: Due Wednesday (Nov. 6) at 11:59 pm

      Weather verification due within 24 hours of first observation

      One feedback: Due Saturday (Nov. 9)

         2. Weather Forecast Assignment using Surface Weather Charts (15 grade points):

              Due  Friday (Nov. 8) at 11:59 pm

         3.  MindTap Homework (6 grade points): Due Friday (Nov. 8) at 11:59 pm

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      Week 11 Resources

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      Chapter 13 from your textbook

      Weather Prediction Ceneter (WPC) National Weather Service (NWS) Forecasts Maps

      NWS WPC Surface Charts

    • National Forecast Maps Page
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      This is to provide you the link for the Weather Prediction Center National Forecast Charts which make an overview of expected weather for up to next three days available to you. 

       

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      Week 11 Assignments and Activities

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      As always, mark your Attendance in here on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. 

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                        Due Wednesday

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    • Discussion on Weather Forecast Forum
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      Respond to all of the prompts/questions below. I encourage you prepare your draft responses on a word document, hit "Add new discussion topic", put "Weather Forecast_Your Name" in the subject line and copy the answers from your document and paste in the main body. Please label each question using their question number to orient your audience. 

      Q. 1. Forecast Funnel (Reading: Special Topic Section 13.1) (7 points)

      a) What is the forecast funnel? List all the steps a forecaster follows while using forecast funnel method.  

      b) For each of the step of forecast funnel, discuss how a forecaster comes up with a forecast report from the point of:

      i) source data and specific feature on the data they look

      ii) the tool they use

      Q. 2. Weather Forecast Model (Section 13.4) (6 points)

      Discuss why weather forecast models are not always accurate in predicting local weather conditions. Discuss this question from the standpoint of minimum four factors that degrade the performance of forecast model. 

      Q. 3. Weather Forecast Activity (6 points)

      a) Look at Table 13.2 under section 13.4c in your textbook. Go outside your room under the open sky in the night time to make observations of the weather at the time. Using table 13.2 as a reference to match your observations to one of the listed descriptions of observations, write down the indications and forecast  of your local weather for next 12-24 hours. Also note your location of your observations. 

      b) After making a verification observation from the same location reported in a after 12 or 24 hour, come back to your post in this forum, hit reply and write down your verification to your forecast. State the accuracy of your forecast. 

      Q. 4. Tornado Forecast (3 points)

      Based on figure 13.14, suppose that a forecast had tracked the first few miles of the tornado's path up to point number 1, then made a very specific prediction, using persistence, that the tornado would continue on the track and pass just north of Moore. Would that forecast have been accurate? Would you consider the warning box outlined in red to be accurate? Explain.  

      Feedback (3 points)

      Provide a feedback by Saturday to a minimum of one post with your support/disagreement/asking to elaborate for the question you have/ or helping them to elaborate with your inputs. You need to provide specific reason/s to agree or disagree with the original post. Only saying  "you did a great job" is not considered a substantial feedback. 

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                        Due Friday

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    • Assignment_ A Forecast for Two Cities Page
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      Read the section "weather forecasting using surface charts" including figure 13.15, forecasting rules of thumb, and a forecast for six cities (figure 13.18). Now, use the provided surface weather charts (maps of 6 hour intervals) to forecast 12 and 24 hour weather for following two locations:

      1. One location from UP Michigan (say, Houghton, or Sault Ste Marie or any other location where a front would pass)

      2. Location of your choice within North America

      When you write your forecast report, it must include:

      Sky cover condition

      Air temperature

      Precipitation: rain/snow (if any)

      Barometric pressure

      Front proximity etc. 

      Note: You can use drawing and attach those drawings with your answer document. Once you are done, submit your answers in Assignment_Week 11. 

    • Assignment_Week11
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